BUBBLEWATCH // AI-Cycle Monitor

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Market Close As-Of: –

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⚠️ Regulatory & Research Disclaimer: BubbleWatch is an automated quantitative research project and does not provide financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Model outputs and temperature scores are experimental heuristics. Financial markets involve substantial risk of loss.

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Headline Thermometer · Bubble Temperature

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Coverage
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The 6 Underlying Thermometer Gauges

How are these calculated? →
Cycle Regime …
P(AI Complex Up, Next 5 Days) –
HY Credit Spread (OAS) –
Fundamentals Reality Check –

1 · AI Complex vs SPY vs Equal-Weight (Rebased 100)

Wide gap between AI (amber) and Equal-Weight (dashed) indicates theme crowding.

2 · Bubble Temperature History (0–100)

Watch for divergences: stock prices making new highs while temperature cools off.

3 · High-Yield Credit Spreads (%)

Rising spreads indicate credit market stress, which typically leads equity pullbacks.

4 · AI Complex vs Power & Utilities Theme (Rebased 100)

Physical constraint trade: data center electricity demand vs AI equity momentum.

Key Daily Indicators

All rolling features computed on traded market sessions
IndicatorValue

Quarterly Fundamentals Anchor — Hyperscaler CapEx ($B) & NVDA Revenue YoY (%)

QuarterCapEx ($B)NVDA YoY (%)

Tracked through latest reported earnings (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta capex + Nvidia YoY revenue).

Public Prediction Scoreboard (Out-Of-Sample)

Permanent Constant-0.50 Benchmark
TargetForecasterEvaluated (N)Brier Score (↓)Accuracy

Every prediction is hashed and logged permanently to our append-only ledger before outcomes occur. If the machine cannot beat a flat 50% coin-toss benchmark, it admits it right here.