Comprehensive regulatory disclaimers, machine learning model limitations, terms of service, and zero-tracking privacy policy governing the BubbleWatch research project.
BubbleWatch is an open-source educational and quantitative research project. It does not provide financial, investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. All data, temperatures, regime classifications, and machine learning probabilities are provided strictly "AS IS" with zero warranty and zero liability.
We are not licensed investment advisors or broker-dealers. Never buy, sell, or hedge any security based on this website. Capital is at risk.
No user accounts, no tracking cookies, no marketing beacons, no personal data collection or sale. Complete privacy by design.
Published under the MIT License. Authors and contributors assume zero liability for any trading, portfolio, or financial losses.
1.1 Educational & Quantitative Research Use Only. All content, indices, calculations, metrics, regime tags, direction probabilities, visualizations, and written analyses published on BubbleWatch (accessible via https://tanishkbansode.github.io/bubblewatch/ or its code repositories) are provided strictly for educational, informational, and academic research purposes only.
1.2 Not Financial, Investment, Legal, Accounting, or Tax Advice. Nothing published on or disseminated by BubbleWatch constitutes, or should be construed as, professional financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, asset allocation counsel, legal advice, or tax advice. No information on this website constitutes a personal recommendation, solicitation, endorsement, sponsorship, or offer to buy, sell, hold, or write any stock, option, ETF, index, future, cryptocurrency, bond, credit instrument, or other financial asset or derivative.
1.3 No Broker-Dealer or Advisory Relationship. BubbleWatch, its creators, developers, authors, and contributors are not registered investment advisors (RIAs), registered broker-dealers, commodity trading advisors (CTAs), financial planners, or financial analysts under the rules of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), or any corresponding national or international regulatory authority. Your access to or use of this website does not establish any fiduciary, advisory, contractual, or commercial relationship between you and BubbleWatch.
1.4 High Risk of Financial Loss. Investment and trading in equities (particularly high-beta semiconductor and artificial intelligence technology companies), options, exchange-traded products, corporate credit instruments, and digital assets involve a substantial risk of capital loss, up to and including the complete loss of your initial investment. Financial markets are subject to sudden shifts, extreme volatility, liquidity shocks, systemic disruptions, and regulatory interventions. You should never commit capital that you cannot afford to lose completely.
1.5 Obligation to Conduct Independent Due Diligence. You expressly agree that you will not base any investment, divestment, trading, hedging, or capital allocation decision upon any metric, temperature reading, regime classification, or probabilistic forecast produced by BubbleWatch. You are solely responsible for conducting your own independent due diligence, financial evaluation, and risk assessment. Before making any investment or financial decision, you must consult with a qualified, licensed, independent financial advisor, certified financial planner (CFP), or registered investment professional.
1.6 Past Performance & Backtesting Are Not Predictive. Any historical returns, past correlation data, backtested statistical distributions, historical rolling z-scores, or historical model evaluations (including Brier scores or out-of-sample directional accuracy) displayed on this website are historical artifacts. Past performance, whether actual or simulated, is no guarantee, representation, or indicator of future performance.
2.1 Nature of the Bubble Temperature Score. The 0–100 Bubble Temperature is a synthetic heuristic index constructed from an unweighted and weighted mathematical combination of six rolling standardized scores (z-scores) computed over an empirical lookback window of approximately 250 trading days. The weights (20% momentum stretch, 20% credit tightness, 20% drawdown proximity, 15% equal-weight relative strength, 15% index concentration, 10% crypto speculative momentum) were chosen by heuristic design. The Temperature does not represent an absolute economic truth, does not measure underlying company cash flows, does not predict market tops or market bottoms, and cannot forecast the exact timing or magnitude of any market correction.
2.2 The 5-Day Direction Forecast Model. The direction model provides an estimate of P(AI complex up next 5d) using an L2-regularized logistic regression trained on chronological splits of past market sessions. You acknowledge that:
2.3 Structural Breaks & Model Drift. Financial markets are non-stationary complex systems. Historical statistical relationships between variables (such as credit spreads and equity momentum) can break down permanently during new macroeconomic regimes, changes in interest rate policy, or structural shifts in the technology hardware supply chain. BubbleWatch models are subject to degradation, model drift, and misspecification.
2.4 Transparent Scoreboard Disclaimer. The public prediction scoreboard logged in data/ledger.jsonl is designed as an open-source research exercise in algorithmic accountability. It is not an audited track record of trading profits or an endorsement of any algorithmic trading system.
3.1 Ingestion Sources. BubbleWatch obtains raw market and economic data from publicly accessible third-party APIs and sources:
3.2 "AS IS" and "AS AVAILABLE" Basis. All data feeds, raw values, processed features, tables, charts, and downloadable artifacts are provided strictly on an "AS IS" and "AS AVAILABLE" basis. BubbleWatch makes no warranties, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, reliability, suitability, or correctness of any data point.
3.3 Inherent Latency & Reporting Lags. Market data on this website is subject to delays:
3.4 Downtime & Pipeline Interruptions. BubbleWatch operates via automated GitHub Actions cron schedules. Automated runs may fail, be delayed, or be skipped due to upstream API rate limits, third-party network outages, server maintenance, or parsing errors. BubbleWatch provides no guarantee of continuous, uninterrupted, or timely publication.
4.1 Third-Party Trademarks. All product names, logos, brands, ticker symbols, company names, and registered trademarks displayed or cited on BubbleWatch are the property of their respective trademark holders. These include, without limitation:
4.2 Nominative Fair Use. The use of any trademark, trade name, or ticker symbol on BubbleWatch is strictly for nominative, descriptive, research, and identification purposes to refer to the respective companies, underlying securities, or data providers. Use of these names does not imply any affiliation with, endorsement by, sponsorship by, or commercial partnership with BubbleWatch or its creators.
5.1 Agreement to Terms. By visiting, browsing, viewing, caching, downloading, querying, or using BubbleWatch (the "Service"), you agree to be bound by these Terms of Service. If you do not agree to these terms in their entirety, you must immediately terminate your use of this website.
5.2 Permitted Use. You are granted a non-exclusive, revocable, non-transferable license to access and view the dashboard and documentation for your personal, non-commercial, academic, and research purposes.
5.3 Prohibited Conduct. You agree that you will not:
5.4 Statutory Disclaimer of All Warranties.
5.5 Comprehensive Limitation of Liability.
5.6 User Assumption of Risk & Indemnification. You assume total responsibility and risk for your use of this website. You agree to defend, indemnify, and hold harmless BubbleWatch, its creators, maintainers, and contributors from and against any and all claims, actions, demands, liabilities, damages, judgments, losses, costs, and expenses (including reasonable legal and attorney fees) arising from or relating to your violation of these Terms, your misuse of the site, or your financial trading decisions.
5.7 Modifications to Terms & Termination. BubbleWatch reserves the right, in its sole discretion, to modify, update, or discontinue any aspect of the website, algorithms, features, or these Terms at any time without prior notice. Continued use of the website following any modifications constitutes your acceptance of the updated Terms.
6.1 Privacy by Design Commitment. BubbleWatch is committed to extreme user privacy. We believe financial and technical research tools should respect your digital autonomy. We do not monetize user data, we do not profile your browsing habits, and we do not sell or trade your information.
BubbleWatch does not collect names, email addresses, phone numbers, payment details, physical addresses, social media profiles, or any personally identifiable information (PII). There are no sign-up forms, user accounts, paywalls, or newsletters on this website.
6.2 Hosting Infrastructure & Technical Server Logs. BubbleWatch is hosted statically via GitHub Pages, a service operated by GitHub, Inc. (a subsidiary of Microsoft Corporation). When your browser connects to GitHub Pages, GitHub’s edge servers may automatically record standard technical access log entries, including:
These technical logs are maintained and processed exclusively by GitHub in accordance with the GitHub Privacy Statement for security, infrastructure health, and legal compliance. BubbleWatch does not receive, export, or store these server logs.
6.3 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs). To render interactive market charts, BubbleWatch loads the Chart.js visualization library from the jsDelivr public CDN. When your web browser fetches this script, your browser communicates with jsDelivr’s CDN servers, which transmit standard HTTP request headers. jsDelivr handles these technical requests according to their public privacy policy.
6.4 Cookies & Local Storage Disclosure.
localStorage. No preference data is ever transmitted back to any BubbleWatch server.6.5 Global Privacy Regulations (GDPR, CCPA/CPRA & DPDP). Because BubbleWatch does not collect, retain, process, monetize, or transfer personal data or maintain a database of user identities:
7.1 MIT Open Source License. The BubbleWatch software, pipeline scripts, feature engines, and dashboard templates are open-source software released under the terms of the MIT License:
MIT License Copyright (c) 2025–2026 BubbleWatch Authors & Contributors (Tanishk Bansode) Permission is hereby granted, free of charge, to any person obtaining a copy of this software and associated documentation files (the "Software"), to deal in the Software without restriction, including without limitation the rights to use, copy, modify, merge, publish, distribute, sublicense, and/or sell copies of the Software, and to permit persons to whom the Software is furnished to do so, subject to the following conditions: The above copyright notice and this permission notice shall be included in all copies or substantial portions of the Software. THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT. IN NO EVENT SHALL THE AUTHORS OR COPYRIGHT HOLDERS BE LIABLE FOR ANY CLAIM, DAMAGES OR OTHER LIABILITY, WHETHER IN AN ACTION OF CONTRACT, TORT OR OTHERWISE, ARISING FROM, OUT OF OR IN CONNECTION WITH THE SOFTWARE OR THE USE OR OTHER DEALINGS IN THE SOFTWARE.
7.2 Source Code Repository. The full, uncompressed source code, feature engineering scripts, data schemas, and pipeline logs are publicly auditable on GitHub: https://github.com/TanishkBansode/bubblewatch.
8.1 Inquiries & Corrections. If you notice an error in data calculations, a bug in the direction model evaluation, an erroneous CapEx entry, or have a legal inquiry regarding this documentation, please open an issue on the public GitHub issue tracker:
Because BubbleWatch is maintained as an open-source research initiative, community contributions, pull requests, and audit verifications are welcomed and encouraged.